"I would like to thank Dr. Doug Bachtel for the expedient handling of this study realizing we had a short time table before City Council action," Gainesville Board of Education Chairman Frank Harben said.
"The study includes four separate analyses to project future student enrollments from this development," Harben said. "The final conclusion from the report is 1,221 new students. This tends to confirm the school board's projections, and dismisses the argument that this development will have a positive financial benefit to the school system."
A study commissioned by REL Development Inc. concludes the project could add $500 million to the city's property tax base, but should add no more than 534 students.
Harben said although the school board appreciates the City Council's efforts to secure a condition in the application for land to be denoted for a new school, "we believe additional conditions are necessary to adequately protect our students, parents, and taxpayers from a substantial negative financial impact."
REL has offered 20 acres - 15 of them donated - for a new school that would be built near the multi-use development which includes plans for more than 2,100 housing units.
"The total negative impact over 20 years from this development will exceed $25 million dollars," he said. "We have asked (REL Development, Inc.) to mitigate this impact by providing $5 million. The value of the land they have offered is approximately $1 million."
Harben said the board is requesting the City Council's support in obtaining additional conditions "to fairly mitigate this hardship to the school system and our local taxpayers."
FULL TEXT OF THE UGA STUDY:
PURPOSE: To determine the number of children living in the proposed Mundy Mill Development.
ANALYSIS: Four different procedures were used to determine the projected number of children.
First, using 2000 U.S. Census data, the value of housing was cross-tabulated with the population per housing unit. In the Mundy Mill Development, a total of 1,726 new units have been proposed. The average value of these units is $220,000. This analysis did not examine the proposed number of children living in town houses or apartments. However, the number of children living in these types of structures tends to be extremely low, and as a result, the exclusion of these units should not have an impact on the school system.
With regard to the single family housing structures, a proposed 1,148 units have been planned. Census data indicates that the average population per household in Hall County with units valued between $200,000 to $249,999 is 3.1 persons per unit, thus excluding parents, these households have 1.1 children. This figure (1.1) was multiplied by 1,148 or the number of projected units, and the number of projected children equals 1,263. When considering the population per household (3.1), we assume 2 adults and 1.1 children. For this average, when a household has only one adult, the number of children would increase. However, very few housing units at the value in the Mundy Mill Development would have more than two adults. These areas tend to attract tradition families.
A second analysis was performed to determine the number of children in the proposed development. Again using U.S. Census data, the information shows that housing units valued between $150,000 to $174,999 have an average household size of 3.02, and units valued between $300,000 to $399,999 have an average household size of 3.03. Thus with 785 housing units valued at $160,000, 801 children are projected to come from these units. With 363 units valued at $350,000, 374 children are projected from these units, assuming two parents in each household. Adding the projected children from these units would account for 1,175 children (801 plus 347 equals 1,175) from the proposed development. These figures, however, do not take into consideration the children living in town houses or apartments.
The third analysis simply used the population per household for Hall County to determine the number of students that could be expected from the Mundy Mill Development. In 2000, average household size was 2.89. Thus with 1,148 new units the number of children is estimated to be 1,022 assuming 0.89 children per housing unit.
The fourth method of analysis examined a similar location in terms of the same value of housing as the Mundy Mill Development ($220,000). Using US Census block numbered groups data (the smallest geographical unit in which value of housing data can be determined) the state was examined to identify an area with a similar average housing value. A block group in northern Fulton County was identified having an average value of owner occupied housing units of $220,100. The average household size for all housing units in this Fulton County block group was 3.24. Therefore, assuming the family size would be similar for same housing value in Hall County, 1,424 children could be expected for the Mundy Mill Development. Census data further shows that an overwhelming majority of families in the northern Fulton County block group were married couple families with children under the age of eighteen.
Thus, the projected number of children residing in the new Mundy Mill Development area is estimated to be 1,221 or the average of 1,263, 1,175, 1,022, and 1,424.
Sources
Boatright, S., & Bachtel, D.C. (2003). The Georgia County Guide. Athens, GA: College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Cooperative Extension Service, College of Family and Consumer Sciences, The University of Georgia
Georgia County Guide Website
Foundations of Government - The Georgia Counties. Association County Commissioners of Georgia. 1976.
U.S. Census Bureau, "Census 2000 Summary File 1 (SF1) 100-Percent Data,".
