A dwindling inventory of average-priced and starter homes and rising home prices across the board may be pricing the average American out of home ownership.
That is the view of real estate executive Frank Norton Jr. in his annual economic forecast called Norton Native Intelligence. He presented the 2022 forecast at Lanier Technical College and on The Norton Agency's Facebook page.
"It's a sad state of affairs throughout the country that we, as a developed society, have priced home affordability out of reach of the average American," Norton said. "The disparity between the haves and the have-nots has widened to the haves and the never going to get."
In his 34th annual forecast, Norton said that until 2021, the average home buyer in North Georgia were people with average credit and average down payments buying average homes.
But 2021 saw builders seeking greater profit margins and governments imposing material diversity and square-footage requirements. Norton said those factors have pushed starter homes or first-time buyer homes to extinction.
Back in the summer, lumber prices skyrocketed, which halted or delayed many construction projects, Norton said. At the same time, the Biden administration placed a tariff on Canadian lumber.
"For years now, Democrats nor Republicans have advanced any housing cost reforms effectively," Norton said. "The Three Stooges could run America's federal housing and urban development department better."
He predicts the trend of higher prices, fewer available home and less new construction will continue in 2022.
Another factor in home availability, Norton said, are moratoriums. He was critical of Jackson County's recent 12-month moratorium on all new residential development, especially considering all the jobs that are coming to the county.
"The dreaded 'M' word has reared its ugly head once again in North Georgia," Norton said. "So much so, we have coined a phrase: Moratoriums are the next-door neighboring counties best friend."
He projects Banks and Franklin counties will be the main beneficiaries of Jackson County's moratorium. He said he based that projection on what happened in the 1990s when Forsyth County has a moratorium.
"The Forsyth and North Atlanta housing industries discovered the welcoming arts of the adjacent county, Dawson, which suddenly came on everyone's radar and exploded overnight," Norton said. "Dawson was forever transformed into a middle-class business community, propelling them forward in services, economy and education."
But it is not just housing prices that concern Norton. Rental prices are on the rise, too, sometime at double-digit rates.
"Hall County rental rates are surging 8 to 20 percent, depending on location, unit size and age," he said. "We expect rates to continue an upward trajectory for the foreseeable future."
He said several high-profile apartment developments in Gainesville will not help with the supply of rental units, bumping up the number of available units by just half of 1 percent.
He also urged local governments to invest in high-speed internet, saying many potential homebuyers will walk into a house, pull out their phone and check the signal. If the signal is low, many just turn around and leave, even if the house met their other criteria.
"Elected leaders need a wake-up call," he said. "Temper the building of government parks, roads and sewer until you get the fiber pipes in the ground and accessibility to 95 percent of your municipal or county population."
Despite the challenge, Norton said North Georgia still has advantages.
"We are thriving economically," he said. "We have population density. We are much more environmental and clean water concerned. We see major improvements in education and higher education offerings. And we have great job opportunities to keep our kids employed and close to home."
