I live, work and play in Georgia. For almost 30 years, I have been at the center of Georgia politics through the ascension of the GOP leading up to 2002 and then in numerous positions throughout the last 20 years. From 2013 to 2019, I was senior staff for Sen. David Perdue’s first campaign and then official office and then Governor Kemp’s campaign and standing up of his official office. I came back to talk radio in 2019 and facilitated conversations about the issues of the day.
Georgia is the new purple state. In 2020, Joe Biden won the presidential race in Georgia and then with suppressed turnout in the January 2021 runoff, two seats were flipped from Republican to Democrat. Make no mistake, the voters that stayed home decided this race. There was over 400,000 Republicans who stayed home and only about 150,000 Democrats. There are enough Republicans to win in 2022 and they are motivated.
On May 24th, Georgia will have their party primaries. Early voting started on May 2. Since Senator Raphael Warnock and former State Representative Stacey Abrams have no opposition, the focus for May 24th will be on the GOP primary and the battle between the voters in the GOP primary who value the endorsement of former President Trump in the races and those who do not. Georgia has open primaries. You do not register by party so you can vote in either primary but if there is a runoff, you must vote in the same primary as you did on May 24th.
There is competition up and down the ballot on in the Republican Primary, however, the most hotly contested primaries are for U. S. Senate and Governor. All of the major constitutional offices are contested and they all have Trump endorsed candidates but depending on where they fall on the ballot seems to determine the impact of the endorsement. Over the months since the 2020 election, the Trump endorsement has been less talked about by the listeners to my program and it is not the first question that is asked. Polling over the last 2 months show the Trump endorsement matters more in the down ballot races then the top of the ticket races, especially the race for Governor.
The U. S. Senate seat has 6 candidates and at the top of the list is former UGA Heisman Trophy winner and businessman, Herschel Walker. He has the Trump endorsement but is unique in he has known Trump for more than 30 years and has his own popularity in the state of Georgia that is not connected to the Trump endorsement. He has polled well over 50% in every poll taken and should win the primary without a runoff (in Georgia you must get 50% plus 1 vote to avoid a runoff election 4 weeks later). Walker comes with his own set of baggage. In 2009, he wrote a book about his battle with mental illness called, “Breaking Free,” and had a large media tour including an interview with his ex-wife sitting next to him talk about his discovery of his mental illness and how he’s dealt with it. He had numerous encounters with law enforcement before his diagnosis but it appears that is in the past and if so, it is a great story of redemption. He told it all, told it himself and told it early—long before he was a candidate for anything. He enjoys support from Trump influenced voters and traditional GOP and independent voters. He asked Democrats and Republicans to vote for him in the primary and stood up to Donald Trump on my program regarding his statement about discouraging people to vote by saying, “I appreciate the endorsement of Donald Trump, but I’m my own man and I would not tell people not to vote. The only way to change things is to vote.” At the Trump rallies held in Georgia, Herschel Walker talks of a positive message and there is very little mention of the 2020 election.
And let me tell you a little secret. The Warnock camp cannot believe Walker is polling in a statistical tie with him.
Advantage—Walker, without a runoff
In the race for Governor, it’s been a little more challenging. Governor Brian Kemp is enemy number 1 for former President Donald Trump and it shows in everything the former president does. Trump believe the Georgia governor is a dictator that has powers he doesn’t have. Initially, Trump was unsuccessful in getting people into the race. Current Trump endorsee for Lt. Governor, Burt Jones, initially was toying with being the Trump endorsed candidate for Governor. He decided to drop down to the Lt. Governor’s race and is currently leading slightly in the polls. In December, former Senator David Perdue got into the race against Brian Kemp, but has never really gotten the traction that a Trump endorsee should get. In an interview to the NY Times last week, Trump encouraged people to look at his endorsements, except for David Perdue, and people noticed. The thing is, just like in the Senate race the people of Georgia know Herschel Walker—in the Governor’s race the people of Georgia know Brian Kemp and every poll shows Governor Kemp increasing or maintaining his lead over Perdue.
Advantage—Brian Kemp without a runoff
So what do the people think? I’ve been talking to them every day and they are softening up about Trump. They still think there may have been some hanky-panky in the election but they are happy with SB 202 which closed some of the loopholes that were closed. But the country should care about what happens in Georgia because it will be pivotal to the take back of the Senate for Republicans and that matters.
