As I write this on the eve of the Iowa Presidential Caucuses, a bitter polar vortex arctic air blast has dropped into the Midwest, and parts South, with forecast temps in Des Moines, Iowa for Monday, January 15, 2023 (Martin Luther King, Jr. Day), a high temp of -2-degrees Fahrenheit and a projected low of -12 degrees. I think it is more than a bit tone-deaf for the Iowa GOP to hold their Caucus and the first contest of the 2024 Presidential election year on the Martin Luther King, Jr. Holiday.
But in Iowa, caucuses are run by political parties, and not the state, and only registered party members may participate. The state is also far from being a melting pot, just under 90% white, with only a 4 percent black population (predominantly voting Democratic), and the largest minority population being Hispanic/Latino, tied largely to the agriculture industry, with many not voting.
Iowans are however built of hardy stock. Caucus contests are held in person at night, in public meeting spaces, schools, libraries, and other government buildings, at currently 1,657 precincts. In this cycle, the Iowa GOP will caucus on Monday, and the Democrats on Tuesday. Though everyone in this scenario will be a bit blue, temps should rise to a high Tuesday of 4 degrees and a low -2, with clear skies.
School closings are blanketing the Hawkeye state, which further complicates both caucus locations and parents with school-age children getting to caucus locations that night. During a typical Presidential year Iowa Caucus, 100-150,000 voters will participate, between the two parties. That is roughly the size of metropolitan Athens, Georgia.
Given the weather, a slight numeric advantage by the GOP over registered voters of Democrats, and the federal holiday, I would be surprised if the GOP caucus turnout is higher than 50,000. If I'm correct, that may be as few as 30 voters per precinct/caucus, with Des Moines by far its largest MSA, and a regional population of close to 900,000.
Although that relatively SMALL number of voters are all active partisans, and being the Iowa Caucus winner does not always secure the eventual party nomination, since "Jimmy Who" came from nowhere to win the Iowa Democratic Party Caucus in 1976, by besting "None of the Above" and all other candidates, the national media have flocked to Des Moines every four years giving Iowa caucus voters an outsized impact on the Presidential contests of both parties.
But the action for this cycle and Presidential Preference Primary season is on the GOP side. Incumbent Presidents rarely face intra-party challenges when they seek re-election. Carter fought back a strong effort by U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy in 1980, ending that contest at the DNC Convention, wounding his candidacy sufficiently along with other challenges to give the White House in a landslide to former California Governor Ronald Reagan that fall.
Former President Donald Trump continues to lead most all polls in Iowa, with a plurality or slight majority of likely GOP caucus voters. For months, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was in a strong second place, topping out around 17-18%. In recent weeks, former South Carolina Governor and U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has pulled even or ahead of DeSantis. The caucus contest at this point is the race for second place.
Trump's ongoing legal challenges, coupled with a comparatively weak organization on the ground, is showing some signs of fatigue among some of his support base. Trump still likely wins Iowa, the question now is the margin, and the overall number of caucus-goers still willing to weather the storm and icy roads, for what many see as a foregone conclusion. Haley and DeSantis voters have more reason to suit up. And while DeSantis has 'bet the farm' and virtually his campaign on Iowa, the recent withdrawal of former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie appears to be primarily benefitting Haley.
While the embattled former Commander in Chief continues to defy legal and political gravity and remains the odds-on favorite, much as his aging counterpart is on the Democratic side, cold winds are blowing towards both. As General Election contests are increasingly decided in battleground states, by Independent and non-aligned voters, who also tend to skip primaries, THOSE VOTERS in significant numbers desire neither of those choices. Fair or square, I forecast that the Arctic weather will have an impact on Iowa Caucus results, and perhaps only that freezing-cold may lower the temperature of the hot temper and ongoing tantrums of Donald Trump.
