The next-to-last College Football Playoff rankings come out Tuesday night, serving up one last chance to see who would be in, who would be out, who will be mad and who should be very, very nervous this weekend.
There are about 18 teams realistically vying for 12 spots in the first-of-its-kind playoff that begins Dec. 20. Outside of Oregon (the only undefeated team in the country) and Notre Dame (on a 10-game winning streak and not playing this weekend) there are very few sure things.
The rankings released Tuesday will be the last before the real list is revealed Sunday and the bracket is set in stone. In between, a slate of six conference title games will shape the template for the 13 members of the CFP selection committee.
The top five-ranked conference champions are in for sure, regardless of their individual CFP rankings, and the top four of those get guaranteed byes into the quarterfinals while the other eight teams play first-round games on campuses. Upsets in the conference title games Friday and Saturday will shake up what's possible.
Miami has two losses, but none of its 10 wins are over a team currently ranked in the AP Top 25. Alabama and its SEC rivals Mississippi and South Carolina each have three losses, but their schedules have been more difficult.
Miami was ranked sixth by the CFP last week, but its loss to Syracuse squandered a spot in the Atlantic Coast Conference title game and put the Hurricanes at risk of falling out of the top 12. Those three SEC teams were 13, 14 and 15 last week.
Committee chairman Warde Manuel was keen on pointing out last week that over the past 10 seasons, when the bracket only included four teams, the committee has placed 22 three-loss teams in its top 12s. Of course, nothing after No. 4 mattered then. It does now.
For the first time, winning a conference title game has the chance to place a team in the bracket that otherwise wouldn't have made it.
We're talking to you, Clemson and UNLV.
Both entered the week on the outside looking in, but if they can spring upsets (Clemson is a 2 1/2-point underdog to SMU in the ACC and UNLV is a 4-point underdog to Boise State in the Mountain West), then they would be in.
Boise State was ranked 11th by the CFP last week, so a loss would probably seal its fate. SMU was ninth and carrying a nine-game winning streak, but a loss would be a bad one and leave the Mustangs teetering, whether ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips likes it or not. Last year, Florida State won the ACC and went undefeated but got left out of the four-team bracket.
“SMU is in the CFP,” Phillips told The Athletic this week. "To me, it’s not even debatable.”
Ranked fourth last week, Penn State will likely move up at least a spot after a comfortable win over Maryland, combined with Ohio State's loss to Michigan.
It means the Nittany Lions should be good, win or lose against Oregon in the Big Ten title game.
Still, there was that anemic-looking loss by Penn State at home to Ohio State and now those Buckeyes — ranked No. 2 by CFP last week — don't look so great, either.
Also, the loser of Georgia-Texas in the SEC title game should be fine regardless of the outcome, but the matchup will carry some freight for the CFP committee: A Texas loss would be its second of the season, both to Georgia, on top of a weak schedule. For Georgia, it would be loss No. 3 — and the other two were to Alabama and Ole Miss.
If both Georgia and Texas make the field next week, there will be plenty of complaints from the Alabama-Ole Miss-South Carolina advocates.
Notre Dame, Tennessee, Ohio State and Indiana would all seem to benefit from not having to play this week, even if that means there's no shot at a conference title.
The Hoosiers dropped five spots in the CFP to No. 10 after falling to Ohio State two weeks ago. But they beat Purdue 66-0 last weekend; no reason to panic there, unless the committee really decides to look at their soft schedule.
Not that everyone — or anyone — agrees with this, but it seems the only real drama left for the Big 12 is whether it will get passed over by Boise State of the Mountain West for the fourth and final bye.
Arizona State's ranking this week should give some hints. The Sun Devils were CFP No. 16 last week, which was five spots behind the Broncos. Both teams won Saturday. ASU looked better doing it, but is that worth a six-spot leapfrog?
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